Modeling the Impact of PrEP Programs for Adolescent Sexual Minority Males Based on Empirical Estimates for the PrEP Continuum of Care
Hamilton D,Rosenberg E,Sullivan P,Wang L,Dunville R,Barrios L,Aslam M,Mustanski B,Goodreau S

Pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP)—an effective and safe intervention to prevent HIV transmission—was recently approved by the Food and Drug Administration for use by adolescents. Informed by studies of sexual behavior and PrEP adherence, retention, and promotion, we model the potential impact of PrEP use among at-risk adolescent sexual minority males.

We simulate an HIV epidemic among men who have sex with men (MSM) aged 13–39. We assume adult MSM ages 19–39 have had PrEP available for 3 years with 20% coverage among eligible MSM based on the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention guidelines. PrEP interventions for ages 16–18 are then simulated using adherence and retention profiles drawn from the ATN113 and Enhancing Preexposure Prophylaxis in Community studies across a range of uptake parameters (10%–100%). Partnerships across age groups were modeled using parameterizations from the RADAR study. We compare the percent of incident infections averted (impact), person-years on PrEP per infection averted (efficiency), and changes in prevalence over 10 years.

As compared to no PrEP use, baseline PrEP adherence and retention among adolescent sexual minority males drawn from the ATN113 and Enhancing Preexposure Prophylaxis in Community studies averted from 2.8% to 41.0% of HIV infections depending on the fraction of eligible adolescent sexual minority males that initiated PrEP at their annual health-care visit. Improved adherence and retention achieved with an array of focused interventions from real-world settings increased the percent of infections averted by as much as 26%–70%.

Empirically demonstrated improvements in the PrEP continuum of care in response to existing interventions can substantially reduce incident HIV infections among adolescent sexual minority males.