We propose to assess the impact of changes in risk behaviors among adolescents by race, based on a recent 10-year trend analysis of the YRBS. This analysis demonstrated significant reductions in risk behaviors (proportion of adolescents ever having sex, numbers of partners, those reporting being currently sexually active) among Black and Hispanic adolescents. On the other hand, it demonstrated decreased condom use among White adolescents. This project will project the numbers of pregnancy over ten years in the absence of those changes, as well as the numbers expected in their presence. Our analyses will focus on heterosexually active adolescents. We will project outcomes specific to race/ethnicity groups, and work with DASH partners to estimate the cost or savings associated with each outcome.